A year after breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record, Alex Ovechkin continued scoring goals – 32 of them and good enough for the team lead – but a far cry from his 44 in 65 games the previous season. In fact, his stats last year are almost identical to his stats from three years ago, when he had 31 goals. In other words, the 2024-25 season was a recent anomaly for him.

So, how will Ovi follow up his goal totals in the 2026-27 season?

We’ve been saying for years that he can’t possibly keep up the same scoring pace as in years past (and we were usually wrong). Last year, I predicted 32 goals – and he did just that, so perhaps I’m getting better at this.

With the significant goal scoring records in his back pocket and a stacked team around him, there’s reason to believe his lamp-lighting pace will slow down a bit more this season, even as the team improves. Here’s why:

• A better line-up. Back in 2016-17, the Caps were stacked, going 55-19-8 with a goal differential of 81. That season, Ovi only had 33 goals, a huge dip as he otherwise averaged 50 a season in the handful of years before and after. If the Caps are as good as they’re projected to be this season, he might find himself in a similar situation, where a combination of fewer minutes and comfortable leads take pressure off of him to light the lamp.
• Fewer minutes. At 41 years old and with nothing left to prove, Ovi will play fewer minutes per game in the coming season. Last season he played a career low of 17:27 a game, the third year in a row in which his time-on-ice has decreased. This coming season, expect anywhere between 45 seconds and a minute extra off per game. Because…
• Less power play time. Ovi is one of the few players who regularly plays the vast majority of the power play, without being subbed in for the second unit. While he will continue to be in the top of the circle – known affectionately as his ‘office’ – it’s likely he’ll get a dozen or so extra seconds of rest on average, time in which he previously might have netted an extra couple of goals throughout the season.
• Fewer empties. In his first 12 seasons, when he won six scoring titles and three MVP awards, Ovi scored 26 empty-net goals. In the last five seasons, he scored 32 empty-netters. Perhaps scoring that many can be explained by his improved defense, coaches trusting him more down the stretch, and a way to get him the all-time goal scoring record quicker. But last season, he wasn’t going for any record, yet they still played him in the closing minutes with the lead. At this point, I can only imagine that playing Ovi in the closing minutes will be for pleasing the crowd, but logically, it seems to make more sense to sub him for a younger, faster, and better defensive player. At some point, it’s going to happen.
• Fewer games? Last season, Ovi didn’t miss any games. Considering he’ll be turning 41 years old, it’s hard to imagine him playing the full schedule again (which is what I thought last season). Without getting into why, 70 seems like a reasonable prediction for his total number of games.

Forecasting fewer empty-net goals, fewer power play goals, and less pressure, I’ll predict 26 goals for Ovi in what might possibly be his final season in the NHL. But there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, is to never bet against Ovi.

Alex Ovechkin bobble jersey from FOCO