Exceeding Expectations: Alex Ovechkin’s Numbers This Year

Posted April 7, 2019

(Caps Outsider)

At work, every year I need to fill out a ‘goals’ list. At the end of the year, I have to say whether or not I accomplished those goals. For Alex Ovechkin, we did this for him, and with 51 goals and 89 points – his best offensive season in nine years – he met if not exceeded the goals that we predicted earlier this season.

At the beginning of the season, here’s what we predicted, in bullet points:

  • He’ll pass Dino Ciccarelli (608), Bobby Hull (610), Jerome Iginla (625), Joe Sakic (625), and Dave Andreychuk (640) for 14th place on the all-time goals list. Brendan Shanahan has 656 so if Ovechkin can score 50 again, he’ll be in 13th place.

Update: EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. We thought 50 would be tough but he did it, and he’s now in 13th place.

  • So long as he gets 300 shots, which he typically does, he’ll pass Brendan Shanahan (5086), Wayne Gretzky (5088), Mike Gartner (5090), Al MacInnis (5157), Phil Esposito (5166), for 4th place on the all-time shots on goal list.

Update: EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. He got 338 shots, though that’s lower than usual. However, his 15.1% shooting percentage was a career high, so that number exceeds expectations.

  • Ovechkin has scored at worst, 3 game-winning goals in a season, and at best, 11. With 102 career game-winning goals, Patrick Marleau is ahead of him with 103, Brendan Shanahan with 109, and both Teemu Selanne and Brett Hull with 110. In the next year or so, Ovechkin will pass these guys for fourth all-time, sitting only behind Phil Esposito (118), Gordie Howe (121) and Jaromir Jagr (135).

Update: BELOW EXPECTATIONS. This ‘below expectations’ isn’t a knock on Ovi, just a missed prediction considering the GWG stat is relatively random. He had 5 this year, putting him in 7th place all time. If he gets 5 more next year, he’ll be in third.

  • With 229, Ovechkin is in 10th place on the all-time power play goals list. Next season, he’ll almost certainly pass Dino Ciccarelli (232), Marcel Dionne (234), Mario Lemieux (236), Brendan Shanahan (237), and perhaps Phil Esposito (246) and Luc Robitaille (247) soon after.

UPDATE: MEETS EXPECTATIONS: With 247 career PPG, Ovechkin is tied with Robitaille.

  • Ovechkin is 40th on the all-time power play points list and will likely end the season, at best, in 33rd place.

UPDATE: MEETS EXPECTATIONS. Ovechkin is in 33rd place.

  • Ovechkin is 59th on the all-time points list. If he gets 70 this coming year, he’ll end the season in 48th place, right behind Dino Ciccarelli (1200).

UPDATE: EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. With 89 points, Ovechkin is in 45th place on the all-time points list.

NHL records owned by Ovechkin

  • Leading the NHL in goals – eight times
  • Leading the NHL in power play goals – six times
  • Leading the NHL in shots – 11 times

Alex Ovechkin All-Time Goals Countdown