T.J. Oshie’s Contract May Come Back and Haunt the Caps

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Posted June 24, 2017

(Caps Outsider)

The Caps just signed winger TJ Oshie to an 8-year, $46 million extension ($5.75 average annual value, the cap hit). The 30-year old had 56 points last season with a career high of 33 goals, in 68 games.

Oshie will be 31 in December. Most players start to decline after the age of 30 and Oshie will likely be one of them. His cap hit of $5.75 million is slightly lower than I was expecting for the next few years, but after that, when he’s in his mid-to-late 30s, it will likely hurt the Caps. In his career, Oshie averages 46 points a season and only 19 goals. His average shooting percentage (including last season) is 13.4%. He shot 23.1% last season. If you take out last season, his average drops to 12.2%. Last year was an insane year for Oshie, and even if it happens again, that production likely won’t last eight more seasons.

Other ‘bad’ contracts: The Caps were lucky to get rid of Brooks Laich and his $4.5 million cap hit when his production took a nosedive. Fans immediately thought the Brooks Orpik deal would haunt the Caps, and with a $5.5 million dollar cap for a third-pair defenseman, those fans would be right. And even now, some have called to get rid of Alex Ovechkin and his cap hit of $9.5 million, now that his production has fallen. Does Brian MacLellan really think Oshie will be different, or did he overpay again, like he did with Orpik?

Oshie’s contract was to appease the fans, which is a dangerous thing to do. MacLellan is a good general manager, but this contract may turn out to be one that costs the Caps in the long run.