What Would Happen if You Bet $1 on the Caps to Win Every Game This Season?

We used a photo of Sonny Milano on this post though it has nothing to do with gambling. (Caps Outsider)

Last season, the Washington Capitals shocked the hockey world by making the playoffs with 91 points, even with a -37 goal differential. They were not a good team, but got good results and crazy luck. Fortunately for the team, management knew this and aggressively retooled in the offseason, bringing in defensemen Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy while bolstering their forwards with Andrew Mangiapane, while young players like Hendrix Lapierre are looking to take the next step.

Despite this, several analytical models still see the Caps well off the playoff pace. The Athletic sees Washington finishing with roughly 85 points and an 18% chance to make the playoffs, MoneyPuck gave them a 22.5 chance, the third lowest in the eastern conference ahead of just Columbus and Montreal and HockeySkytte projects them to finish with roughly 83 points and a 16% to make the playoffs. One model that views the Caps differently is Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) whose model predicts Washington to finish with 90 points and be tied with Philadelphia for the last playoff spot in the east.

So can the Caps defy the odds again? I think they will and will be (figuratively) putting my money where my mouth is by seeing what would happen if I put $1 on the Caps to win every game. This will also only do wins and losses, regardless of if it is in regulation or overtime.

For this experiment, I will be using a $100 bankroll (starting amount) to keep the math easy, and using the same sports book for every game to keep consistency. The sports book I will be using is the one featured on the team’s home jersey. How does the sports book think the Caps will do this year? They actually agree with Blake McCurdy and have set the team’s total points total at 89.5 points. But for the purpose of this exercise, that doesn’t matter all that much but is a good starting point.

Whether or not this experiment yields positive will be less on how many games the Caps win and more on who they beat. A win against an expected top of the league team like Edmonton, Toronto and the New York Rangers is far more valuable than a win against bottom feeders like San Jose and Chicago. In fact, as shown in The Athletic’s “how to bet on hockey” article, the wins against top teams will matter more than losses against teams at the bottom of the standings.

In fact, last season that scenario played out according to HockeySkytte’s model. The model also has a betting component where it takes probabilities for each game and makes a recommended bet (both size and on what team) based on the game probabilities compared to a sports book. Based on this model, with a Kelly Criterion of .3, if you bet on the Caps to win based on the model, you would have ended the regular season up 40% of your bankroll. In other words, the Caps won often when the sports book expected them to lose. On the flip side, if you had bet against the Caps when the model had said to, you would have still ended in the green, for a profit of roughly 10%.

Those numbers, however were based on what the model said to do based on the sports book. What if its just blind faith? That is what I will be testing this season.

I will provide updates each month to this experiment to see how the sports books are adjusting to the Caps and the league overall with how the season goes. I will be tracking their biggest upsets and biggest (based on odds) letdowns. Will the Caps end up beating the odds again and turn a profit or will the house win again? Only one way to find out.

Writers note: This article is for entertainment purposes only and should not be viewed as advice. If you are someone you know is struggling with gambling addiction call 1-800-GAMBLER.