Not only did 39-years-old Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record this past season, but he finished third in the league with 44 goals in 65 games, a total that in many ways, is more impressive than what he put up when he won nine goal scoring titles.
So, how will Ovi follow up his goal totals in the 2025-26 season?
We’ve been saying for years that he can’t possibly keep up the same scoring pace as in years past (and we were usually wrong). But with the record in his back pocket, there may be more reason to believe he’ll slow down in the goal-scoring department, at least a bit. Here’s why:
- Fewer minutes? At 40 years old and with nothing left to prove, Ovi next season may play fewer minutes per game than in previous seasons. Last season he played a career low of 17:43 a game, which makes his 44 goals last season even more impressive. But this coming season, expect anywhere between 45 seconds and a minute extra off per game. Because…
- Less power play time? Ovi is one of the few players who regularly plays the vast majority of the power play, without being subbed in for the second unit. While he will continue to be in the top of the circle – known affectionately as his ‘office’ – it’s likely he’ll get a dozen or so extra seconds of rest on average, time in which he previously might have netted an extra couple of goals throughout the season.
- Fewer empties? In his first 12 seasons, when he won six scoring titles and three MVP awards, Ovi scored 26 empty-net goals – two fewer than ENG leader Marian Hossa during that era. However, in the last four seasons, he also scored 26 empty-netters. Perhaps scoring three-times as many empty netters can be explained by his improved defense and the coaches trusting him more down the stretch. But a more obvious explanation is… he was going for the all-time goal scoring record. Had nothing changed these last four seasons, he would be 15 or so goals from the record. With the record secure, it doesn’t seem as likely that the coaches will continue to regularly play him in the closing minutes with the lead. He’s never regularly killed power plays, so why the closing minutes? Because of the empty net. I could be wrong on this one, as playing Ovi here is a crowd-pleaser and he’s sure to keep scoring in that scenario, but it seems likely that he’ll get subbed in for a younger, and better defensive player more often than in the past four seasons.
- Fewer games? Last season, Ovi missed 17 games due to a leg injury, the most he missed in a season in his career. Considering he’ll be turning 40 years old, it’s hard to imagine him playing the full 82-game schedule again. Without getting into why, 70 seems like a reasonable prediction for his total number of games.
- Shooting percentage returning to earth? Ovi scored on a career-high of 18.6% of his shots on net, 5.7% better than his career average. How that number skyrocketed is anyone’s guess, but it isn’t likely to remain that absurdly high this coming season. Had he shot at his average shooting percentage last season, he would have netted 30 goals.
Forecasting fewer empty-net goals, about 12 power play goals, and less pressure, I’ll predict 32 goals for Ovi in what might possibly be his final season in the NHL. But there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, is to never bet against Ovi.
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