With their big 5-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins Wednesday night, the Washington Capitals have officially hit the halfway point of the season.
Now 41 games in, the Caps find themselves in second place of the Metropolitan division with a record of 27-9-5 and a total of 59 points. They currently trail the Columbus Blue Jackets by a single point for first place.
Here are some things that the stats are saying about this Capitals team at the midway point of the season.
Brooks Orpik/Nate Schmidt are a really good pairing.
For all the years of playing run and gun hockey, the Capitals have quietly turned into one of the best defensive teams in the entire league. Not exactly the hardest thing to do when you have one of the world’s best goalie in the league (more on him in a minute), but all three defensive pairing have shown the ability to play shutdown hockey.
While eyes might turn to what the top two defensive pairs have done, the combination of Schmidt and Orpik has actually turned into one of the best in the entire league, analytically wise.
When it comes to puck possession, playing as a pair together, Orpik and Schmidt have posted the second best Corsi-For%, when adjusted for score, venue, and zone. This is among all defensive pairs that have played at least 300 minutes together.
They also rank in the top ten in suppressing shots (25.84 SA/60, eighth lowest), on-ice save percentage (95.68%, third best), limiting scoring chances (6.17 SCA/60, fourth lowest) and goals against per 60 minutes (1.43 GA/60, sixth lowest).
Lars Eller has been everything they had hoped for and then some.
The Capitals traded for the former Montreal Canadian at the most recent draft, surrendering their next two second round picks to get the 27-year-old Eller.
It turns out, it was worth every bit of that, as Eller has turned into one one of the best third line centers in the league, especially at shutting down the opposition.
Among all forwards with at least 400 minutes of 5v5 play, Eller has been a puck possession star, sitting in fifth currently in CF%. That, in turn, has allowed him to limit the opposition’s offense by keeping them out of the offensive end.
He also sits in the top 15 in SA/60 and GA/60, ranking ninth and 13th, respectively. Teammate Tom Wilson actually ranks first in the league in GA/60, with a 1.20 – or .29 ahead of Eller.
Alex Ovechkin reaches 1,000 points.
This has nothing to do with analytics, but it is that big a milestone that is worth mentioning again. With a goal just 35 seconds into Wednesday’s game against the Penguins, Ovechkin joined the 1,000 point club. Reaching the mark in 880 games, Ovechkin has averaged 1.13 points per game, as well as .54 goals a contest.
Braden Holtby might be having a better year than last season.
After winning the Vezina last season as the league’s top goaltender, as well as tying Martin Brodeur record for most wins in a season, it is hard to believe that Holtby might be topping that year this time around.
Holtby currently leads all goalies in 5v5 SV%, and his goals saved above average (GSAA) is almost seven saves higher than it was on this same date a year ago. GSAA measures how many saves above league average a goalie has stopped. The higher the number, the more amount of saves he has made better than the league average goalie.
Might Capitals be lucky?
Say what you will about analytics, especially when it comes to hockey, but there is no denying that it is on the right track. When used properly, it can be a point in the right direction.
Corsi alone won’t tell you who is going to win the Stanley Cup, but there is no denying that teams who post excellent numbers are usually in a good position to be the last one standing.
Other numbers are, however, untested in how they can predict how things will unfold. Expected goals against is a number that projects how many goals a given team should allow based on shot quality and several other factors (shot type, distance, angle, rebounds, rush shots, and strength stature).
When you later take into account the team’s actual goals against, you get a good idea how good they may be performing. Allowing more goals than expected? That team may be overperforming and could be in line for a regression. Scoring less than expected? They could be in line for a surge of goals in their favor.
For the Capitals, not only are they scoring more than expected, they are allowing far less than what they should be allowing.
Of course, this could be factoring into the fact that they have one of the best goalies in the league, but Washington has nearly allowed a full goal less per 60 minutes than what has currently been projected of them.
With Holtby having the season he has, this might turn into nothing, but it could also become something to keep an eye out for.
