Caps Hot Start Leads to Big Gains
If you bet $1 on the Caps to win each of their first nine games, you would have $5 in profit
The Washington Capitals are off to one of their best starts in franchise history after a 7-2-0 October. As a result, the experiment of putting $1 on them to win each game is profitable. Perhaps, more so than it should be.
If you had bet $1 on the Caps to win each game this season, you would have made over $5.50 in profit, largely due to the Caps being the underdogs in all but two of their nine contests so far. The only two games the Caps were favorites in October was the second game against Philadelphia and the game against Montreal, both wins. The Caps being underdogs in seven of their first nine games isn’t too much of a surprise given their schedule – two games against New Jersey, a game against Vegas, Dallas, and the New York Rangers all teams with Stanley Cup aspirations with a visit to play Tampa who is a playoff contender. The lone question mark to Washington being underdogs was when they faced Philadelphia a team they were ahead of in the standings at the time and a team they beat out for a playoff spot last season.
The Caps’ were the largest underdog against New Jersey at +158 on October 19, but with the 6-5 win, it is the most profitable game to date.
While still early, having beaten the odds five out of seven times is quite the feat. The question moving forward will be if the Caps are more than just playoff hopefuls, and how quickly the odds adjust.
The analytical models have already adjusted.
The Athletic’s model had the Caps at an under 20% chance to make the playoffs at the start of the year. On November 1, that number rose to 68%. MoneyPuck who had Washington at less than a one-in-four shot, now gives them a four-in-five chance to make the playoffs. HockeyViz, whose model was the most favorable to Washington before the season, has seen a meteoric rise in the Caps’ projected finish in the standings going from a tie with the Flyers to the last playoff spot, to home ice in the first round.
The Caps have a tough November schedule, with 15 games in 30 days and four sets of back-to-backs. Of those 15 games, nine come against teams that made the playoffs, including the defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers and another two games against the Devils who look to return to the playoffs after being derailed by injuries last season.
The Caps have had a strong start to the season, but with such a small sample size, things can still change. However if the Caps are this good, the odds makers will need to adjust accordingly or it could lead to a very profitable season.
Writers note: This article is for entertainment purposes only and should not be viewed as advice. If you are someone you know is struggling with gambling addiction call 1-800-GAMBLER.
