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Brett Connolly’s Long Journey to NHL Relevance

(Caps Outsider)

One of the key reasons for the Washington Capitals’ surge to the top of the standings has been the play of their third line. Since being put together, the Caps’ third line has given more options for opposing teams to worry about, opening up things for the rest of the team.

It may not have turned out the way it was expected for one a part of the line, but after years of looking for an opportunity to make an impact, Brett Connolly has finally found a role and a surrounding that suits him.

Once the sixth pick overall in the 2010 draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning, Connolly was drafted ahead of players like Jeff Skinner, Cam Fowler, Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko. Playing for the Prince George Cougars of the Western Hockey League (WHL), Connolly scored 46 goals in 73 games the season after his draft year.

Making the NHL Lightning team the following year, expectations were high for Connolly. After being hyped as another potent goal scoring threat that may be able to complement Steven Stamkos, Connolly registered four goals in 68 games his rookie year.

Not the way things were supposed to work out. Over the next two seasons, Connolly played mostly in the American Hockey League (AHL), playing in just 16 games at the NHL level. He had success while in the minors, but didn’t get the opportunity to translate that to the next level.

In those 16 games, Connolly registered just two goals.

Maybe a chance for a new start, Connolly was traded to the Boston Bruins towards the end of the 2014-2015 season, after playing 50 games with the Lightning where he established a new career high in goals (12). The Lightning received two second-round picks in the deal.

What was going to be a new start in Boston, Connolly injured his wrist and only played in five games the rest of the season.

The following year he got his top-six opportunity that he never got with the Lightning. Getting the opportunity to play with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, Connolly was never able to establish himself among the team’s top two lines. He finished the year with a career-high in points (25) but it wasn’t enough for him to earn a qualifying offer from the Bruins, making him an unrestricted free agent.

He eventually landed with the Capitals on a one-year deal, worth $850,000. After starting the year in and out of the lineup as a healthy scratch, Connolly finally caught on as the left winger on the third line, matched with Lars Eller and Andre Burakovsky.

Together, the trio has formed one of the best third lines in all of the NHL. Connolly, perhaps thought mostly as an afterthought on the line, has been the key cog among the three. Eller was a big trade acquisition at the draft, and Burakovsky was a former first-round pick by the Capitals.

Connolly was just supposed to be a throw-in, and rotate in and out on the fourth line.

Hidden in the struggles that were Connolly’s early career, was a steady increased metric production that once he finally made it to the Capitals, exploded, and he and his line have been reaping the benefits.

Stat Career 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
CF% 51.42% 46.59% 44.57% 49% 55.31% 51.47% 55.97%
Sh% 7.74% 7.28% 0 5.36% 7.39% 7.96% 9.66%
xGF60 2.36 2.26 3.38 2.20 2.28 2.27 2.78
SCF/60 7.27 7.47 13.06 7.75 6.54 6.94 7.95
GF/60 2.37 1.98 0 1.55 2.14 2.67 3.24

*All stats from Corsica.Hockey, based on 5v5 play

More or less, it has been a steady rise for Connolly and his team-based metrics. He is actually one of the better puck possession forwards in the entire league, currently with a 55.97 Corsi-For% (CF%) mark. Among all forwards that have played at least 350 5v5 minutes, according to Corsica.Hockey, Connolly has the 17th best CF% in the league.

The 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 seasons are going to be slightly skewed due to the fact he only played in five and 11 games, respectively.

Outside of his rookie season, Connolly’s goals for per 60 has taken a step up each and every season.

Stat Career 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
G/60 0.61 0.18 0 0.52 1.13 0.36 1.62
P/60 1.27 0.99 0 0.52 1.58 1.30 1.62
iSF/60 6.92 7.29 10.16 5.17 8 6 6.97
iSH% 8.81 2.47 0 10 14 6.02 18.60
iSCF 2.21 1.98 8.71 1.55 2.25 2.24 1.95

Connolly is enjoying a career year goal scoring wise, all the while firing shots on net at one of his lower rates in his career.

He hasn’t been registering many assists throughout his career, but at his current rate of putting the puck in the back of the net, it can be overlooked. Among the same group of forwards that have played at least 350 minutes at 5v5, Connolly has the tenth highest goals per 60. His shooting percentage is the seventh highest in the group.

While it may be easy to point at a more established Eller or even Burakosvky, or just the line gelled better than anyone had hoped, for the reason behind Connolly’s success, there are numbers to suggest that he is actually helping elevate his linemates.

Player CF% xGF/60 SF/60 GF/60 GA/60 SCF/60 SCA/60
Eller w/o 54.32 2.24 28.11 1.35 1.35 7.32 9.43
Burakovsky w/o 52.49 2.42 31.21 2.14 1.99 8.2 9.94
Eller w/ 60.75 3.19 33.54 3.43 1.23 9.56 4.41
Burakovsky w/ 60.62 2.88 33.54 4.57 0.76 7.24 2.67


Connolly will never be confused with a strong defensive forward, but his ability to drive action on the offensive end keeps the puck out of his own zone. The top two rows are both Eller’s and Burakovsky’s numbers without Connolly on the ice with him, the bottom with him.

Each and every one of the stats listed above is better when Connolly is on the ice with Eller and Burakovsky as opposed to when he wasn’t.

In the game today, you need the ability to roll out four lines that can hold their own. The Capitals’ fourth line is still a little more of the traditional grinding trio, but the rest are threats to score each and every time they take the ice.

Washington has been in this position before, with the best records in the league, but have yet to capitalize it during the playoffs. Unlike years before, they have a third line that has the ability to alter games, and potentially series, making a dangerous team that much more lethal.

For Connolly, it is hard to say that it has been a ‘long time coming,’ as he is still just 24 years old. Unlike some others, he has experienced far more on the ice, and after everything he has been through is finally starting to show the potential that made him the sixth overall pick.

Anthony Murphy

Anthony is a contributing writer to Capitals Outsider. He has also written for The Hockey Writers, Last Word on Sports, Fansided, and Rant Sports in the past.

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