Players

Yes, We’re Asking This Again. Should the Capitals Trade Mike Green?

Will Green be wearing red on March 3rd? (Photo by Capitals Outsider)

When the Washington Capitals drafted Mike Green in 2004, he was selected with the thought that he would be a power play specialist and one of the top defenseman for the future. More than ten years later, some of those predictions came true. Few defensive players around the NHL have the offensive talent that Green has, and even fewer have anywhere near his level of control with the puck. There was even a time when he was known as “Game Over Green” for his propensity for overtime goals. Even with all those glowing traits, there is plenty of trade rumors and speculation that the one-time number one defenseman for the Capitals will be leaving by the trade deadline on March 2nd.

The argument for keeping Green, who is in the last year of his $6 million and change contract, is that few players bring the offense the way he does. His 12 power play points is tied for third on the team, only behind Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin. He is also fourth on the team in points with 35, and has been able to stay relatively healthy throughout the season, compared to previous years. His defense has improved year after year, and it would be hard to find a player with the same overall offensive talent that he has. One of the strongest parts of the Caps is their power play, which would likely drop its level of productivity were he to leave. If they are to let the deadline pass without moving him, it is possible he could re-sign with the Caps at a lower rate, giving the team a home town discount.

While those are solid reasons to keep the two time Norris Trophy candidate, there are also reasons to move him. At 29, he is in the prime of his career, something other teams will covet. Were he not sidelined the past few seasons, his numbers would be even higher. His trade value is at the highest it has been since the mid-Bruce Boudreau era, though his status as a rental will bring his trade value down some. A team looking for a top four defenseman as well as a top of the line power play specialist could not do much better with what will likely be this season’s trading deadline market.

The effect his departure would have on the Capitals, depending on the return, would not be as drastic as it would have seemed in the past. Karl Alzner, Matt Niskanen, John Carlson and Brooks Orpik have cemented their spots as the team’s top four defensemen. With Jack Hillen half of the third pairing, the team could make a separate trade if they do not feel as though Nate Schmidt or Cameron Schilling are suitable partners or if Dmitry Orlov is still out with a wrist injury. While this would likely be a drop in the pairing’s overall skill, it should not hurt the team too much defensively. Then again, if those players are not ready and Hillen is not the answer as part of the third pairing, the team is back to where they were last season when they were rotating minor league call-ups as their third pairing.

The biggest argument for trading Green is that he has the most value on the market, and leaving won’t be detrimental for the Caps overall. Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky have higher value, but are unlikely to move as their potential is too great. The team is not expected to make the same mistake as they did with Filip Forsberg. Marcus Johansson has value, but would leave a bigger hole in the lineup. With the team likely looking for a top line right wing, Green is the likeliest candidate to get someone good in return.

The best example of a type of trade that the Capitals could do would be to look at the trade between the Dallas Stars and the Pittsburgh Penguins from 2011, where Pittsburgh sent offensive defenseman Alex Goligoski to Dallas for left winger James Neal and Niskanen. Goligoski was 25 at the time, with 31 points before being traded. Neal was only 23, having scored 39 points that season before being traded. Niskanen was 24 at the time, and had previously set a career high of 35 points in a season two years prior. Dallas was looking for an offensive defenseman, and paid the price of a young forward and defenseman. The Capitals and general manager Brian MacLellan could look for a similar deal.

Green’s production and value is higher than Goligoski’s was at the time, but his age and injury history are a detractor. He is unlikely to grow into a better player, but he’ll still be a top-four defenseman. A team such as the Montreal Canadiens, as TSN’s Bob MacKenzie speculated, could be in the market for an offensive defenseman. Pairing Green on the power play with P.K. Subban could be lethal, but do they have the depth to part with a top six forward and a second or third pairing defenseman?

Green has said that his heart and soul are in the District, and he wants to stay. If that is the case, he likely would take less money to stay with the team that drafted him. However, with the uncertainty with where the salary cap ceiling will be next season and the Capitals solid top four defenseman, MacLellan and staff would be foolish to not at least look around and at least explore their options.

For more of my thoughts and views on the Capitals and the NHL, check out my podcast What The Puck?!

Daniel Hayden

Daniel is a lifelong Caps fan, even during the lean years. He currently co-hosts a podcast called What The Puck?!, which focuses on the Caps, as well as updates on the Hershey Bears and South Carolina Stingrays, and NHL news. You can find it at the shows official website on iTunes, Stitcher Radio and as part of the Baltimore Sports Report Network and Capitals Hill.

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